Kevin and the Tour of California: Curt’s Predictions

As we told you earlier, Kevin is doing the Tour of California Stage 7 Individual Time Trial this Saturday.  I figured we’d play a little ‘predict the time’ for Kevin as well as some of the big names competing in the time trial.

The time trial is a 21 mile course in downtown Los Angeles.  The stage is just about as flat and fast as you can get, and other than a few tight corners,  the times should be faaaast.  (that’s right, quadruple a’s)

Here’s my predictions:

Mr. Kevin O’Connor

USAT Duathlete of the Year;  6 time Ironman World Championship finisher with 9:13 PR.  33 career multisport wins.

Curt’s prediction:
Typically Kevin averages about 25-27 mph in triathlon and duathlon races, and can consistently hit 27 for individual time trials such as the Tuesday Night Time Trials.
Being that it’s a fast course, Kevin’s in good shape, and given the fact that he will be more pumped up than he has been for any other time trail, here are my predictions:
Ave watts: 320
Ave mph: 27.5
Time: 45:49

Mrs. Chrissie Wellington

3 Time Ironman World Champion; Undefeated at Iron-distance triathlon races; Quite possibly the fastest female long course triathlete the world has ever seen.

Curt’s prediction:
So she’s clearly got the long course biking nailed, but I’m not so sure she’ll be able to ramp it up for such a (relatively) short time trial.
Ave Watts: 260
Ave MPH: 26.2
Time: 48:05

Chris “Macca” McCormack:

One of the most decorated professional triathletes, winning everything from ITU World Championships to Ironman World Championships.  One of the few triathletes to go sub 8 in an Iron distance triathlon.

Curt’s Prediction:
Although Macca is focusing on long course racing, he can still bike surprisingly fast for a “runner”.  He also has experience in short course racing, so I think he will be able to throw down a pretty solid TT.
Ave Watts: 325
Ave MPH: 28.3
Time: 44:31

Chris Lieto:

One of the fastest cyclists in triathlon, finished 2nd at the Ironman World Championships in 2009, and has also trained with and competed in several other pro cycling races.

Curt’s Prediction:
I think Chris will surprise a lot of the pro cyclists, and I’m hoping he can actually beat a bunch of them.    He’s got the engine to put out some big numbers, and if he shows up ready to race, he should be quite competitive among the pro cyclists.
Ave watts: 365
Ave MPH: 29.1
Time: 43:18


I’m not even going to go there…

Curt’s prediction:
He’s not going to win it, but he’s clearly dedicated towards winning the TDF this year, so he should finish in the top 10 for the TT.
Ave watts: 392
Ave mph: 29.5
Time: 42:42

Fabian Cancellara:

3 Time World Time Trial Champion, Olympic Gold Medalist, Multiple Tour de France stage winner

Curt’s prediction:
Cancellara is looking to be in the best shape of his life, and that’s saying something with his resume.  He’s definitely the man to beat in the TT.    And look at that hair…. it’s just dreamy.
Ave watts: 460
Ave mph: 30.3
Time: 41:35

So there you have it.  Kevin will beat Chrissie, but will over 4 minutes back from Cancellara.

Kevin is going to give his predictions tomorrow.  Does he think he can beat Chrissie?

One thought on “Kevin and the Tour of California: Curt’s Predictions

  1. Yikes, Fabian’s avg watts is 460?! that is absolutely scary… It sure puts things in perspective considering I’m doing my 3rd Ironman this year and my goal avg watts for the Ironman Canada course is only going to be around 220 and I consider myself a strong cyclist. It will surely be interesting to see how Lance does when he throws down for Ironman Kona next year after the TDF!

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