So, if you havn’t heard, Lance Armstrong has apparently committed to doing the Ironman World Championship in 2011. Below is a video of his coach, Chris Carmichael confiming this…
So talking at the shop, we figured we couldn’t let Lance steal the show at Kona 2011, so we’ve decided it would be a good time for us to step up to the big show. That’s right, in 2011 it’s…
So we’ve got almost 2 years to prepare and train to beat one of the greatest cyclists ever, who also happens to have a backround in triathlon. But we do have one advantage…. we know him and he doesn’t know us. We should be able to sneak in under the radar and blow his doors off come race day.
Let’s go through what it will take to take down Lance at Kona:
Let’s face the facts. The swim @ Kona doesn’t matter. All of us at GWB&Tri will plan on staying in a tight group on the swim and coming out together… probably in right around 1 hour. Lance may get us by a few minutes here, we’ll put him at 53 min.
Lance’s plan will be to push the bike. In fact, he’ll probably go out with the intention of breaking the bike course record of 4:18:24 and take a huge lead into the run. We’ll put him at a 4:15 bike. Not a problem. Team Gear West will get out on the bike 8 strong and begin their work. We all know from our performance at the Firehouse 50 Team Time Trial that we should be able to hold a steady pace of 28 mph for 50 miles. With four extra bodies, we should be able to maintain that pace for the additional 62 miles no problem. (yes, we’re aware of the drafting rules and plan to stay at 10 meters of separation). So doing the math, that should put us right at a 4 hours flat. That should give us a 8 minute lead heading into the run. But we don’t plan to stop the assault there…
So Lance has actually run a pretty decent marathon in his late 30s, running a 2:47 at the New York Marathon in 2007. So, we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt of saying that he can run that same time at Hawaii. Last year Trent ran a 6:33 mile in the TC 1 mile race. When asked if he could run 26.2 at that pace he assured us he could. That puts him at all 2:51 marathon. Kevin ran a 1:16 half marathon earlier this year, so we’ll double that to put him at 2:32 for the marathon. David typically runs 1:16ish for his 13.1 mile split for half ironmans, so we’ll give him the same time as Kevin; 2:32. Hannah should be able to pace off David for the first half, but will probably fade in the final miles. We’ll play it conservative and give her a 2:45 marathon. Drew ran a 16:37 3-mile in high school, putting him at 2:25 marathon. Our mechanics Matt and Jared are planning on pacing off each other during the run, and are planning to hold hands while crossing the line. We’ll put them at a 2:50 marathon. Me, (Curt) am planning on keeping an eye out for Lance during the race, so I’m going to slow down and wait for him to catch up and provide our crew with Lance updates throuout the race. I will plan a monster kick at the end to finish just ahead of him. That puts me at a 2:55 marathon. So here’s the results breakdown:
Swim T1 Bike T2 Run Total
1st. Drew: 1:00 2:30 4:00 2:30 2:25 7:30 new course record
2nd David: 1:00 2:30 4:00 2:30 2:32 7:37
3rd Kevin: 1:00 2:30 4:00 2:30 2:32 7:37
4th Hannah1:00 2:30 4:00 2:30 2:45 7:50 new women’s record
5th Jared 1:00 2:30 4:00 2:30 2:50 7:55
6th Matt 1:00 2:30 4:00 2:30 2:50 7:55
7th Trent 1:00 2:30 4:00 2:30 2:51 7:56
8th Curt 1:00 2:30 4:00 2:30 2:55 8:00
9th Lance 53:00 2:30 4:15 2:30 2:47 8:00:01
So there you have it. Gear West Bike and Tri take the top 8 spots at Kona in 2011 and take down Lance. So now we’ve got 2 years to get in fighting shape. Wish us luck.
(editors note: the above posting may or may not be true.)